12.03.2021

Fantasy Football Gambling

Fantasy Football GamblingFantasy Football Gambling

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Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 16

Tracking my predictions: 5-9-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 80% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >80% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

Woo-hoo! Off the schneid after a brutal, seven-week losing streak … last week’s pick of Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts paid off in a huge way. I originally had him forecasted for over 34 fantasy points but struggled to justify it, so I toned it down to being just shy of 30 points. He finished north of 41 and rewarded anyone brave enough to chance it along the way.

For as good as it feels to get one right, it’s time to move on to Week 16 and make it two in a row.

WR Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

It has been six long games without a touchdown for Jeudy, and the rookie has fallen on tough times in that window of action. He has no more than four catches in any of the games, generating 68 or fewer yards in each one. In the last five, his yardage figures are as follows: 37, 0, 5, 42 and 19, respectively.

Rookie wall, anyone?

In Week 8, Jeudy faced Los Angeles in Denver and landed four of 10 targets for 73 yards. He caught passes from Drew Lock, so at least that remains the same. Denver has seen flashes of improved play from slot receiver K.J. Hamler of late, and Tim Patrick on the outside has played better than anyone could have rationally expected. We even saw a hint of life from tight end Noah Fant last week after a lengthy disappearing act.

Jeudy has just one game this year with more than five catches and only two with at least five. He has seven appearances with two or fewer grabs, and even when he was consistently playing better than he has of late, the rookie went over 75 yards just once. He has scored twice on the year (Week 4 at NYJ, Week 9 at ATL).

The Chargers have been among the worst teams at getting to the quarterback in 2020, and that theme has continued into the late portion of the season, as well as at home. Denver’s ability to keep Lock clean is absolutely critical in Jeudy having success. So is establishing a running game, because the more often LA crowds the box to slow former Charger Melvin Gordon, or RB Phillip Lindsay, the better the odds are Jeudy will face isolated attention or a breakdown in coverage.

Over the course of 2020, Los Angeles has been among the worst matchups for a receiver in PPR scoring. In fact, only KC and the other LA team have been stingier. This is the worst matchup for receptions, but a touchdown allowed per game, on average, helps improve the outlook.

None of those numbers should get anyone excited about playing Jeudy. A closer inspection of recent trends may persuade some brave souls out in fantasy land. Since Week 10, Los Angeles has maintained its grasp on being the worst opponent to face for racking up volume, which hasn’t been Jeudy’s strength anyway, and no team has given up a higher frequency for scoring by wideouts. One in every 7.8 catches has found paydirt in the last five weeks, or six in four games, covering 47 grabs. It’s almost like LA sought out to do the opposite of the old “bend but don’t break” defensive mantra. The yardage (131.8) permitted hasn’t been in Jeudy’s favor, though. Despite this being the worst opponent for reception volume, 18 times a receiver has produced at least 10 PPR points in 2020 vs. the Chargers.

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Intangible to considerations: Divisional rivals know each other inside and out, and it can cut both ways. It promotes creative playcalling on offense, which forces defenses to react to something it may not see as a likely play design, and it also can lead a lot of “feeling each other out” as the two sides expect the unexpected early in contests.

This element works in Jeudy’s favor vs. a defense that has given up the highest PPR points per catch while also allowing the fewest catches. In other words, the Chargers help increase efficiency by giving up touchdowns in their own territory. Jeudy doesn’t have to do much, but what he must be is efficient with his touches.

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My projection: 4 receptions, 62 yards, 1 TD (16.2 PPR fantasy points)